Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Markets are full of predictions that cannot be checked until after the fact. Implied probability is different. It is already ...

Traders in bonds and credit default swaps are bombarded with information on the default probabilities implied by credit spreads using a simple ratio. This ratio predicts that the credit spread will be ...