If we convert this spread into a probability of recession twelve months ahead using the probit model described earlier (estimated with Treasury data from January 1959 to December 2005), we can match ...

This really tells the whole story, doesn’t it? Depending on which sources you went with, the New Orleans Saints had a win probability of something between 97% and 98% late in Monday night’s game with ...

The Titans' chances of pulling off a stunning upset against the Dolphins seemed dead in the water after a couple of key fourth-quarter turnovers. The first came when Eric Garror inexplicably muffed a ...

While Fed Chair Jay Powell won’t cut interest rates today, he is likely to give guidance on what the Fed is watching, what it’s thinking, and what it may do with rates down the road. Traders are ...

An ESPN story notes that bookmakers across the country say more than $10 million shifted after the Chiefs coughed up a fourth-quarter lead and lost 35-32 to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Most of the ...

some teams are already in midseason form pic.twitter.com/2yOQWcOzXc — Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 11, 2022 Whew. Let’s all take a deep breath. Sunday’s ...

Whew. Let’s all take a deep breath. Sunday’s season opener between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons was a roller coaster ride from start to finish, peaking in the fourth quarter with a ...

They give us such hope or such despair during games. And we've seen some ones in which teams were thisclose to 100 percent -- as in, actually winning -- before miracles sent the line on the chart ...

After combining for 24 points in the first three quarters of Sunday’s AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs and Patriots scored 38 in the fourth quarter alone. There were four lead changes in the last ...

Win probability charts -- which we've covered extensively on this website -- can sometimes feel misleading when you're staring at a near-100 percent chance of winning. Look at that cliff! The Pats had ...

This is the online version of our daily newsletter, The Morning Win. Charles Curtis is filling in for Andy Nesbitt. We have another win probability chart to add to the museum we here at For The Win ...