The New York Times reports that Trump and Xi Jinping will meet in Beijing on May 14-15. The Polymarket contract for Trump ...

As geopolitical tensions cool, traders are watching Bitcoin’s trajectory for the rest of April. The forecast fits broader ...

US missile stockpiles are depleted, raising Taiwan defense concerns. China invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026 at 2.6% YES.

US prepares military strikes on Iran if ceasefire talks fail. Diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 at 2.4% YES.

US expands military presence in Venezuela with new chargé d'affaires arrival. US strikes two or more countries in 2026 at ...

Reports indicate operational MiG-29s and fresh mines in the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting US claims of major Iranian military losses. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at ...

Japan will start an oil reserve drawdown on May 1 due to the Iran conflict. Crude oil hitting $90 by June 30 at 15% YES.

China released the DeepSeek V4 AI model with a 1M-token context window, but Google having the best AI model by May 2026 ...

Pentagon considers punitive measures for NATO allies not backing Iran operations. US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 at 0.5% ...

Bitcoin conviction buyers increased holdings by 69% in Q1 despite a 22% price drop. All-time high by June 30, 2026 at 3.1% ...

US offers a $10M bounty for an Iran-linked militia leader. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium by April 30, 2026 at 5% ...

Morgan Stanley launches a fund for stablecoin issuers under GENIUS Act compliance. USDC depegging by December 31 at 3% YES.