US mediates talks between Israel and Lebanon while skepticism remains about an Israel-Iran peace deal. Peace deal by April 30 ...

Iran deposits first Hormuz toll fees, signaling operational enforcement. Odds of 80 ships transiting by April 30 at 4.5% YES.

The Canadian dollar fell as Middle East tensions push oil prices higher. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 3.2% YES.

Bitcoin’s price fell to $77,800 from $79,400 as traders took profits. The “Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?” market reflects ...

EU mandates Google to share Android features with ChatGPT and Claude. Google having the top AI model by June 2026 at 27% YES.

Gold faces a weekly loss amid US-Iran tensions and inflation worries. Gold hitting $8,000 by June at 3.5% YES.

Iran disrupts aluminum supply in the UAE and Bahrain, pushing prices above $3,500/tonne. Crude oil at $90 by June now at 61% ...

UN warns the US-Israel war on Iran may push 30 million into poverty. Iranian regime falling by June 30 at 8.5% YES.

Israel-Lebanon ceasefire collapsed without affecting Bitcoin markets. Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April at 1.2% YES.

Trump extended the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire by three weeks. Endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 at 100% YES.

The U.S. has spent up to $35 billion in the Iran war, but a formal declaration of war by December 31 is now at just 7% YES.

Rubio’s remarks point to increased confidence in a lasting resolution, pushing up the probability of the ceasefire being ...