Iran's crackdown intensifies with increased executions and abuse reports. Regime fall by June 30 rises to 8.5% YES.

SpaceX's IPO focus on AI boosts public offering odds, with a June 30, 2026 date now at 73.5% YES and September 30 at 91.5% YES.

Israeli defense minister shifts strategy to economic disruption of Iran. Iranian regime fall by June 30 at 8.5% YES.

Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, leading to a drop in peace deal odds with April 30 at 5.5% YES.

The US is considering new strikes if Iran continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Trump announcing the ...

Iranian ships breach the US Hormuz blockade, causing market odds for Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 to drop to 59% YES.

The International Energy Agency projects the gas crisis from the Iran war may extend for two years, pushing odds on crude oil ...

The US-Israel conflict with Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, with crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 2% YES.

US-Iran talks have stalled, leading to a drop in crude oil all-time high odds to 1.4% YES and a rise in no diplomatic meeting ...

Trump administration reclassifies FDA-approved marijuana to Schedule III. Marijuana rescheduled by December 31 at 42.5% YES.

Trump’s endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 sits at 100% YES with 7 days remaining, even as Israel continues ...

The retweet sent a clear signal to traders that Trump isn’t prioritizing a peace deal. The April 30 market saw the sharpest ...