Iranian ships breach the US Hormuz blockade, causing market odds for Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 to drop to 59% YES.

SpaceX's IPO focus on AI boosts public offering odds, with a June 30, 2026 date now at 73.5% YES and September 30 at 91.5% YES.

Israeli defense minister shifts strategy to economic disruption of Iran. Iranian regime fall by June 30 at 8.5% YES.

The International Energy Agency projects the gas crisis from the Iran war may extend for two years, pushing odds on crude oil ...

The US-Israel conflict with Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, with crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 2% YES.

Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, leading to a drop in peace deal odds with April 30 at 5.5% YES.

The US is considering new strikes if Iran continues its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Trump announcing the ...

US-Iran talks have stalled, leading to a drop in crude oil all-time high odds to 1.4% YES and a rise in no diplomatic meeting ...

Trump’s endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 sits at 100% YES with 7 days remaining, even as Israel continues ...

Trump administration reclassifies FDA-approved marijuana to Schedule III. Marijuana rescheduled by December 31 at 42.5% YES.

The retweet sent a clear signal to traders that Trump isn’t prioritizing a peace deal. The April 30 market saw the sharpest ...

Navy Secretary Phelan was fired via social media amid Trump tensions. Next Cabinet departure before 2027 at 3.4% YES.