The probability of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April has dropped to 10%, down from 20% just 24 hours ago ...

Morgan Stanley has launched the Stablecoin Reserves Portfolio (MSNXX), a money market fund designed for stablecoin issuers, ...

US deploys three aircraft carriers to the Middle East, signaling increased military involvement. US escorts in Hormuz by April 30 at 6% YES.

US Supreme Court's tariff ruling stalls India-US trade talks amid Iran conflict. No US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at ...

Israeli strikes on Al-Khiam in Southern Lebanon continue despite the existing ceasefire with Hezbollah. The Israel x ...

Tehran faces a potential medicine shortage due to a naval blockade. Iran targeting ships by April 30 is at 30% YES.

Iran conflict drives Brent crude above $110, raising polyester costs. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 1.5% YES.

Iran's crackdown intensifies with increased executions and abuse reports. Regime fall by June 30 rises to 8.5% YES.

Kuwait reports drone attacks from Iraq on its border posts, with Gulf state military action against Iran now at 6% YES.

Iranian ships breach the US Hormuz blockade, causing market odds for Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 to drop to 59% YES.

SpaceX's IPO focus on AI boosts public offering odds, with a June 30, 2026 date now at 73.5% YES and September 30 at 91.5% YES.

Navy Secretary Phelan was fired via social media amid Trump tensions. Next Cabinet departure before 2027 at 3.4% YES.