US missile stockpiles are depleted, raising Taiwan defense concerns. China invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026 at 2.6% YES.

Reports indicate operational MiG-29s and fresh mines in the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting US claims of major Iranian military losses. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sits at ...

Japan will start an oil reserve drawdown on May 1 due to the Iran conflict. Crude oil hitting $90 by June 30 at 15% YES.

Morgan Stanley launches a fund for stablecoin issuers under GENIUS Act compliance. USDC depegging by December 31 at 3% YES.

China released the DeepSeek V4 AI model with a 1M-token context window, but Google having the best AI model by May 2026 ...

A US-sanctioned Iranian oil tanker attempts to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 3.1% YES.

Pentagon considers punitive measures for NATO allies not backing Iran operations. US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 at 0.5% ...

Bitcoin conviction buyers increased holdings by 69% in Q1 despite a 22% price drop. All-time high by June 30, 2026 at 3.1% ...

US offers a $10M bounty for an Iran-linked militia leader. Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium by April 30, 2026 at 5% ...

Ethereum could rally to $6,000 due to supply cuts and institutional demand. Ethereum at $10,000 by December 2026 priced at 4.2% YES.

US expands military presence in Venezuela with new chargé d'affaires arrival. US strikes two or more countries in 2026 at ...

Bitcoin ETFs attracted $223M for the eighth consecutive day, while Ethereum ETFs recorded a $75.9M outflow that broke a ...