US maintains pressure on Iran, making oil sanction relief unlikely. Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 at 5.5% YES.

UK is in talks with Anthropic to use its AI model for bank cybersecurity. Anthropic as third-best AI model by April 2026 at ...

UN warns the US-Israel war on Iran may push 30 million into poverty. Iranian regime falling by June 30 at 8.5% YES.

US mediates talks between Israel and Lebanon while skepticism remains about an Israel-Iran peace deal. Peace deal by April 30 ...

Iran disrupts aluminum supply in the UAE and Bahrain, pushing prices above $3,500/tonne. Crude oil at $90 by June now at 61% ...

Israel-Lebanon ceasefire collapsed without affecting Bitcoin markets. Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April at 1.2% YES.

Iran deposits first Hormuz toll fees, signaling operational enforcement. Odds of 80 ships transiting by April 30 at 4.5% YES.

Bitcoin’s price fell to $77,800 from $79,400 as traders took profits. The “Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?” market reflects ...

The Canadian dollar fell as Middle East tensions push oil prices higher. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 at 3.2% YES.

Trump extended the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire by three weeks. Endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 at 100% YES.

EU leaders have sealed a €90 billion loan to Ukraine at the Ayia Napa summit, and the Polymarket odds for a 50 basis point ...

Trump says he turned down Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 ...