Until the Jackson Hole pivot, the Fed prioritized inflation risks over growth, but successive weak employment reports and downward revisions revealed a stalling labor market. Tariff-driven cost-push ...

Fed Governor Waller recently emphasized that resolving the growth-employment split will guide policy. We believe the resolution will come through lower growth estimates. This supports maintaining a ...

Want to stay long stocks? Watch the 10-year yield. If we are not under 4% by the end of the year, stocks will suffer.

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Matt is the Chief Strategist for both our Geopolitical Strategy and US Political Strategy services, where he oversees our coverage of market- relevant policy developments in the US and worldwide.

The financial industry’s premier geopolitical research. We use hard data to calculate scenario probabilities and market impacts for geopolitical risks and opportunities. Ukraine’s economy is small but ...

Provides asset allocation recommendations to optimize your US bond portfolio, given the different macro environments effecting interest rates and bond yields. Our Golden Rule of Bond Investing is a ...

Our flagship publication service provides macro-based investment recommendations across all asset classes, geographies, and time horizons. Global Investment Strategy has become one of the most widely ...

Continuously monitors the evolution of the business cycle, credit cycle and monetary policy to inform US strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations. We are investors too, and know what’s ...

Alec Lovett is the Head of Stablecoins & Payments at Coinbase, where he leads the platform infrastructure business, encompassing payments, stablecoins, wallets, and crypto-as-a-service. Prior to ...

Unique sector and style allocation framework that blends macroeconomic, fundamental, and technical analysis to provide actionable investment recommendations. We cover broad market trends that drive ...